The Development Programme's US$799.4 billion is foregone output, being a modelled counterfactual at constant 2010 prices against an assumed 5 per cent annual growth path to end 2024
Claim ID
CH1-002
Exact or summary claim
The Development Programme's US$799.4 billion is foregone output, being a modelled counterfactual at constant 2010 prices against an assumed 5 per cent annual growth path to end 2024
Destination
Chapter 1
Status
SUPPORTED
Source
UNDP, The Impact of the Conflict in Syria, 24 February 2025, annexe I-2
Source type
Official assessment, primary document opened
Published
2025-02-24
Accessed
2026-08-10
Measure and scope
Cumulative difference between actual and potential real GDP, 2011 to 2024, at constant 2010 prices, on an assumption of steady 5 per cent annual growth in the absence of conflict. The report's main text rounds it to approximately US$800 billion and states the price basis in the same sentence
Known conflict
None on the figure. The 5 per cent counterfactual growth rate is an assumption and the total is proportional to it, which the chapter should say when it uses the figure
Specialist
None
Downstream
Chapter 1's citation chase; the ILO and EPRS chain
Action
Describe as a counterfactual model output, never as a measurement, and give the price basis and the growth assumption with it