Karam Shaar Advisory Ltd., 'Powering the Recovery: the Electricity Sector at a Crossroads', Syria in Figures, issue 9, July 2025
Source ID
SRC-312
Citation
Karam Shaar Advisory Ltd., 'Powering the Recovery: the Electricity Sector at a Crossroads', Syria in Figures, issue 9, July 2025
URL or path
research/Powering the Recovery the Electricity Sector at a Crossroads.pdf; page renders at research/Powering the Recovery the Electricity Sector at a Crossroads_pages/p001-p004.png
Type
Specialist analytical publication
Hierarchy tier
4
Published
2025-07
Accessed
2026-08-22
Snapshot
PDF capture of the publisher page, 4 pages, held on disk since 3 August 2026
Claims
Chapter 8 measured baseline; cited by TR-011
Status
READ
Version history
The register keeps changing after the book is fixed in print. Each entry below was added to this row in the order shown.
HELD ON DISK SINCE 3 AUGUST 2026, UNREGISTERED AND UNOPENED UNTIL 22 AUGUST 2026. Image-only, no text layer; the accompanying .txt is 15 bytes, which is why nobody had opened it. All four pages were already rendered as PNGs and had never been looked at. This is the sixth recorded instance of the held-unread pattern. TIER 4 AND NOT HIGHER: its own source line reads 'Source: Online media reports. Calculations and data compiled by Karam Shaar Advisory Ltd.', so for figures it compiles it is an account of other documents and EVIDENCE_PROTOCOL's bar on SECONDARY-tier figures in prose applies; for its own calculations and for figures it accessed directly it is the publisher. THE DOCUMENT THE TRANSACTION REGISTER HAS BEEN CITING BY NAME: TR-011's Source_ref names 'Syria in Figures issue 9, July 2025' and no source register row existed for it for twelve days. WHAT IT ESTABLISHES, VERBATIM. 'Domestic electricity production dropped to just 12,900 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2023, down from nearly 49,000 GWh before the conflict. More than 30% is lost in transmission and distribution, leaving most people with only a few hours of power per day. Current output stands at less than one-fifth of pre-war levels: 1,600 MW today versus 9,500 MW in 2010.' AND ITS OWN CAUTION ON THAT CAPACITY FIGURE, WHICH THE SOURCE MANUSCRIPT DOES NOT CARRY: '(As noted in a previous edition of Syria in Figures, estimates of current capacity, assuming full fuel supply, vary widely.)' THE 23 MILLION CUBIC METRES IS A MINISTERIAL STATEMENT, NOT A MEASUREMENT: 'In March 2025, the Caretaker Minister of Energy stated that meeting daily existing power plant needs would require about 23 million cubic meters of gas and 5,000 tonnes of fuel oil.' GRID RESTORATION COST: 'According to unpublished government figures accessed by Karam Shaar Advisory Ltd., restoring the grid will require an estimated USD 1.5 billion and at least five years.' This is the only sector cost figure located in this project and it rests on figures the government has not published; RF-003's status NO_SECTOR_COST_PUBLISHED is correct and does not move. GAS PER MEGAWATT, TWO WAYS: 'gas requirements to produce 1 MW vary between 4,390 cmd (Turkish figures) and 5,000 cmd (Qatari figures)'. THE TWO GAS DEALS: Qatar Fund for Development with Jordan's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, UNDP facilitating, enough gas to generate 400 MW via the Arab Gas Pipeline from Aqaba, 'or roughly 2 million cubic meters per day'; Turkiye 5.5 million cmd via the rehabilitated Kilis-Aleppo pipeline 'beginning in early June', enough to generate 1,200 to 1,300 MW. UCC PACKAGE AS THIS DOCUMENT DESCRIBES IT: a USD 7 billion memorandum of understanding, consortium led by UCC Holding with Kalyon and Cengiz Enerji and US-based Power International, four combined-cycle gas turbine plants totalling 4,000 MW and a 1,000 MW solar facility IN THE SOUTH; and on 13 June 2025 UCC secured sites at Deir Ezzor's al-Taym complex 'for a 750 MW plant, a 1 GW solar park, and the upgrade of three substations'. IT FALSIFIES AN ATTRIBUTION IN THE SOURCE MANUSCRIPT. Source Chapter 7 line 2173 attributes 'about 7.4 million cubic metres a day' to 'Karam Shaar Advisory's 2025 sector assessment'. THIS IS THAT ASSESSMENT AND IT SAYS 8: 'When added to the 8 million cmd produced locally, total available supply now stands at 15.5 million cmd, or 67% of daily requirements.' THE DOCUMENT'S OWN ARITHMETIC CONFIRMS 8 AND EXCLUDES 7.4: its pie chart of shares of daily gas need reads 34.8, 32.6, 23.9 (Turkish Deal) and 8.7 (Qatari-Jordan-UNDP Deal) per cent; against a 23 million cubic metre requirement, 8/23 = 34.8, 5.5/23 = 23.9, 2/23 = 8.7 and the residual 7.5/23 = 32.6. All four segments reconcile on 8 and none on 7.4. Retrieval A3 of the Chapter 8 gate must locate whatever carries 7.4 before either figure is printed with that attribution. TWO FURTHER CONFLICTS WITH THE MANUSCRIPT, at gate sections 8.3 and 8.5: the Kilis-Aleppo line (5.5 million cmd from early June here, against 6 million and 2 August 2025 in the manuscript) and the solar site description in the UCC package. ONE LIMB NOT TAKEN AND NAMED RATHER THAN OMITTED: page 3 carries an allegation against named individuals connected to UCC Holding, concerning a UK legal case. Nothing is taken from it here. It is a live allegation about identifiable people and it belongs to SR-012, the media-law review covering allegations, right of reply and permissions, not to a drafting pass. WHAT IS NOT READ: the top of the pie chart is cut at the page 2 to 3 boundary, so two of its four segment labels are inferred from the arithmetic above rather than read; and the hyperlink targets behind the compiled figures are not resolved, which is retrieval A2 and is the route by which those figures reach PRIMARY tier.