World Bank, Project Appraisal Document, Syrian Arab Republic: Electricity Emergency Project, 9 June 2025, 48 pages
Source ID
SRC-351
Citation
World Bank, Project Appraisal Document, Syrian Arab Republic: Electricity Emergency Project, 9 June 2025, 48 pages
URL or path
https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099061125140013933/pdf/BOSIB-6d8f7a5d-6bf0-4d8f-a33c-78cb2338ab7f.pdf; research/SRC-C2_WorldBank_SEEP_PAD_2025-06-09.pdf; text at research/SRC-C2_WorldBank_SEEP_PAD_2025-06-09.txt
Type
Official appraisal document of the financier
Hierarchy tier
2
Published
2025-06-09
Accessed
2026-08-22
Snapshot
PDF archived 22 August 2026, 48 pages, full text layer
Claims
Retrieval C2; TR-001
Status
READ_IN_PART
Version history
The register keeps changing after the book is fixed in print. Each entry below was added to this row in the order shown.
RETRIEVED, ARCHIVED AND READ AT ITS SECTOR DIAGNOSTIC, 22 AUGUST 2026, retrieval C2 of the Chapter 8 gate. Report No PADHI01216, 48 pages, dated 9 June 2025, Energy and Extractives, Middle East and North Africa. THIS IS THE MOST USEFUL SINGLE DOCUMENT RETRIEVED FOR THIS CHAPTER AND IT SUPERSEDES SEVERAL ANALYST COMPILATIONS THE MANUSCRIPT RELIES ON. THE GRANT IS NOT DENOMINATED IN DOLLARS AND NO REGISTER ROW SAID SO: 'PROPOSED GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 107,700,000 (US$ 146 MILLION EQUIVALENT)', at US$1 = SDR 0.73740331 effective 1 June 2025. That is why the status report at SRC-350 shows Original 146.00 and Revised 146.43: the dollar figure moves with the rate and the commitment does not. Any sentence printing 146 million dollars says it is an equivalent. The same page gives US$1 = SYP 13,002 at 1 June 2025. CAPACITY, AND IT REPLACES THE FIGURES IN CIRCULATION. 'Available generation capacity dropped from 9,838 megawatts (MW) in 2011 to 5,403 MW in 2023, a reduction of 45 percent.' 'Amid the conflict, 18 percent of the 2011 available capacity was completely destroyed (Aleppo Thermal Station in 2015; Zayzoon in Idlib in 2016; and Thayyem in Deir al-Zor in 2017).' Partial damage is named at Mhardeh, Al-Zara and Tishreen thermal and at the Tishreen, Al-Thawrah/Tabaqa and Freedom/Baath hydropower plants. Before the conflict fossil generation was '85 percent of the 2011 installed capacity (9838 MW)', from 19 power plants of which 16 were thermal and 3 hydro on the Euphrates. 'The available thermal generation capacity dropped from 8293 MW in 2011 to 4434 MW in 2023, while the HPPs capacity fell from 1535 MW in 2011 to 970 MW in 2023.' ONE INTERNAL TENSION, RECORDED NOT RESOLVED: 9,838 MW is called available generation capacity in one sentence and 2011 installed capacity in another. LOSSES, DECOMPOSED, AND THIS SETTLES THE PROBLEM THE MANUSCRIPT GETS WRONG. Verbatim: 'high technical losses, estimated at more than 6 percent in the transmission system and almost half of the 22 percent distribution system losses. Together with losses in the power plants, TOTAL SYSTEM LOSSES AMOUNT TO 33 PERCENT.' So the thirty-odd per cent figure INCLUDES power plant losses, exactly as the Central Bureau of Statistics figure at SRC-324 includes self-consumption. Source Chapter 11 line 3179 insists the network loss be kept distinct from 'the 5 to 6 per cent of output that generating plants consume internally' and says confusing them 'understates the network problem by a factor of five'. THAT IS WRONG TWICE: the headline already contains the plant losses, and the transmission-specific figure is about 6 per cent, not thirty. The honest decomposition is 6 per cent transmission, 22 per cent distribution of which almost half is technical, and 33 per cent in total including plants. NETWORK CONDITION: 'about 40 percent of it remains damaged, mostly high voltage substations', and 'The country's 400 kilovolt (kV) interconnectors with Jordan and Turkiye, once crucial for electricity regional trade and grid stability, are currently nonoperational due to conflict-related destruction and prolonged neglect.' A FIFTH SECTOR COST FIGURE, AND ITS SCOPE IS NARROW: 'According to MoE, the total estimated investment needed to address the immediate rehabilitation needs of the T&D system is approximately US$1 billion.' That is the ministry's estimate of IMMEDIATE T&D needs reported by the Bank, not a sector reconstruction cost, and it must not be set against the 40 billion, the 30 billion or the 1.5 billion without saying what each covers. SUPPLY AND DEMAND: 'per capita annual electricity consumption falling from 2,378 kWh in 2011 to 1,190 kWh in 2020', against a footnoted comparator of about 3,000 kWh in Turkiye in 2020 on IEA statistics. 'Total energy supplied by PETDE dropped from 25.5 TWh in 2020 to 17.1 TWh in 2024; a reduction of 32.9 percent.' 'The available fuel supply is barely sufficient to run the system at 1800 MW; providing two to four hours of electricity per day, on average.' A SENTENCE IN THIS DOCUMENT CONTRADICTS ITSELF AND ARITHMETIC PROVES IT, WHICH IS THIS BOOK'S SUBJECT IN A TIER-2 OFFICIAL SOURCE: 'While the total demand for electricity increased by 14 percent between 2020 and 2024, unserved energy increased by 121 percent FOR THE SAME PERIOD (from 11.5 TWh in 2011 to 25.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024).' The stated period is 2020 to 2024 and the parenthesis runs 2011 to 2024. The arithmetic fits the parenthesis, since 11.5 times 2.21 is 25.4, so the period label is the error. Quote it and say so. THE COST OF SERVICE AGAINST THE TARIFF IS THE CHAPTER'S BANKABILITY SPINE AND IT IS HERE: 'In 2023, the average tariff stood at US cents 1.5/kWh, while the actual cost to supply electricity is approximately US cents 12.5/kWh.' And on coping: 'Typical solutions include expensive privately-owned off-grid diesel generators, with electricity costs reaching as high as US$1.10/kWh. Some stand-alone solar photovoltaic systems also exist for those who can afford the upfront cost. GRID-SUPPLIED SERVICE IS THE LEAST-COST OPTION, with the cost to supply electricity at approximately US cents 12.5/kWh in 2023.' THE FINANCIER SAYS THE GRID IS THE LEAST-COST OPTION AND THAT OFF-GRID SOLAR IS FOR THOSE WHO CAN AFFORD THE UPFRONT COST. A chapter celebrating household solar has to meet that sentence, and the brief's requirement to compare central and distributed resources through a least-cost plan now has a published comparison to start from. RENEWABLES IN THE SUPPLY MIX, AND IT RECONCILES WITH IRENA RATHER THAN CONTRADICTING IT: 'Intermittent renewable energy (such as solar and wind) plays a negligible role in the current supply mix, slowly increasing from 0.1 percent in 2020 to 0.4 percent in 2024', with hydro at 1.1 per cent in 2024. Set against IRENA's 2,249 MW of installed solar at SRC-314, the two are consistent because 2,060 MW of it is OFF-GRID and never enters the supply mix. The chapter must say which quantity it means. THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK, WHICH THE BRIEF ASKS FOR AND NOTHING ELSE IN THIS PROJECT HELD: 'Law 32 of 2010 opened electricity generation and distribution to investments from public, private, and public-private entities, both domestic and international. This law designated the Ministry of Electricity as the sole authority responsible for formulating policies, developing market structure development, licensing, setting tariff, and preparing the Investment Framework for Council of Ministers' approval. Further regulations for liberalizing the sector were introduced through the Recipient's Law 41 of 2022.' And 'PETDE may enter into power purchase agreements with private sector generation. Additionally, the law allows wheeling and self-consumption schemes for private sector generation.' So a PPA and self-consumption already have a legal basis, which is what the Syrian-Turkish PPA at SRC-345 is executed under, and the tariff-setting power sits with the ministry, which is why the embassy guide at SRC-325 records no separate regulator. THE MINISTRY WAS RECONSTITUTED: 'the TGoS recently merged the ministries of electricity, oil and mineral resources, and water resources into a newly established Ministry of Energy (MoE).' GOVERNMENT TARGETS ON THE FACE: 'The TGoS announced plans to increase grid service provision to 8 hours daily by the end of 2025, and to 24 hours by 2030', and a strategy of 'closing the supply-demand gap to achieve 24-hour electricity access across the country by 2030'. Those are announced plans and are attributed as such. ON THE NDC, AND IT IS A THIRD INSTITUTION TREATING THE 2018 SUBMISSION AS OPERATIVE: 'The proposed SEEP aligns with Syria's climate priorities, as outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) submitted in 2018.' With SRC-004 and SRC-348 that is the World Bank and the Green Climate Fund both proceeding on the 2018 NDC, which is issue 11 answered twice over. HEALTH IMPACT, quoted because the brief wants consequence rather than rhetoric: 'more than 70 percent of Syria's 122 public hospitals struggle with unreliable electricity; 41 percent of hospitals are unable to maintain vaccine cold chains; and over 50 percent experience disrupted diagnostic services.' STATUS READ_IN_PART: the currency page, the sectoral and institutional context at paragraphs 9 to 23, the Paris alignment paragraph and the technical assistance component description are read. The results framework, the economic and financial analysis, the procurement and financial management annexes, the environmental and social sections and the risk annex are NOT read, and the economic analysis in particular is owed before any cost or benefit claim is drafted.
FURTHER READING, 22 AUGUST 2026: the economic analysis, the disbursement arrangements and the fiduciary section are now read, and one of them changes what the disbursement figure at SRC-350 means. THE DISBURSEMENT MECHANISM IS THE POINT AND IT WAS NOT KNOWN WHEN D-093 WAS TAKEN. Paragraph 50, verbatim: 'This Project will utilize transaction-based disbursement. DISBURSEMENTS FOR KEY PROJECT ACTIVITIES REPRESENTING US$144 MILLION OUT OF THE TOTAL US$146 MILLION in Project financing WILL BE MADE THROUGH DIRECT PAYMENTS, including for rehabilitation of damaged high-voltage transmission lines and substations, as well as primary consultancy contracts (TA under Component 3, and international OE consultancy services under Subcomponent 4.1). Expenses under Subcomponent 4.2, including the operational' costs of the project management team, are handled by reimbursement. SO 144 OF 146 MILLION IS PAID BY THE BANK DIRECTLY TO SUPPLIERS AND CONSULTANTS, NOT TRANSFERRED TO SYRIA. The introduction's sentence at v17 line 85 is about 'money disbursed TO SYRIA'. A direct payment to an international owner's engineer is a disbursement of the grant and is not money to Syria, and the correction ordered at D-093 must say which it is. On the evidence held, the 9.50 million at SRC-350 is a disbursement of the grant whose channel is direct payment; nothing opened establishes that any of it reached a Syrian account. THAT IS A SHARPER FINDING THAN THE ONE D-093 WAS TAKEN ON, not a weaker one. THE DESIGN REASON IS STATED AND IT JOINS TO THE PAYMENT-CHANNEL ARGUMENT OF CHAPTER 6. Paragraph 64 lists the financial management risks: 'i) PETDE's limited knowledge of the World Bank's FM policies and guidelines, ii) residual limitations on the flow of funds due to past bilateral sanctions which have in the meantime been temporarily waived, eased or lifted and iii) MISUSE OF FUNDS CONSIDERING THE HIGH PERCEPTION OF FRAUD AND CORRUPTION IN A HIGH-RISK AND WEAK CONTROL ENVIRONMENT.' The mitigations are 'centralizing financial management functions and authorities within the PMT', 'processing most project payments through the direct payment disbursement', reimbursement for the project management team's own costs, and contracting a third-party monitoring agency. A Designated Account is conditional: 'A DA with a low ceiling, to be managed by PETDE, COULD BE CONSIDERED IF a flow-of-funds mechanism of a financial institution is assessed to be acceptable to the World Bank.' SO THE FINANCIER HAS DESIGNED AROUND THE SYRIAN BANKING SYSTEM AND SAYS SO, and will only route money through a Syrian institution if one becomes acceptable. THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, PARAGRAPH 62, VERBATIM: 'The proposed Project is viable both economically and financially, with strong returns under base case and sensitivity scenarios. The economic analysis, over a 20-year horizon, yielded a net present value (NPV) of US$121.46 million and an economic internal rate of return (IRR) of 25%, well above the 10% discount rate. The financial analysis, over a 5-year period aligned with SEEP's closure, yielded a financial NPV of US$56.7 million and a financial IRR of 23%. Costs in both assessments primarily comprise capital investments and incremental O&M costs. Key economic benefits include reduction of unserved energy, LOWER COSTS FOR CONSUMERS PREVIOUSLY RELIANT ON DIESEL GENERATORS, and fuel switching through cheaper electricity imports.' THE DISPLACEMENT OF PRIVATE DIESEL IS COUNTED AS AN ECONOMIC BENEFIT OF GRID REHABILITATION, which is the brief's central-against-distributed comparison performed by the financier and monetised. 'Sensitivity analyses tested 20% increase in capital costs and 20% reduction in benefits, with both analyses confirming the Project remains robust.' AND THE CARBON FIGURE IS PRINTED TO TWO DECIMAL PLACES, WHICH IS THIS BOOK'S SUBJECT IN A TIER-2 OFFICIAL DOCUMENT: 'The Project will contribute to avoiding carbon emissions by 1,255,808.65 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) annually and approximately 25,116,172.96 tCO2e over the lifetime of the asset (20 years), including both the avoided emissions from rehabilitated transmission lines and reduced technical losses.' TWO DECIMAL PLACES ON A TONNE IS PRECISION TO TEN KILOGRAMS, on a twenty-year projection of avoided emissions, in a country whose last national greenhouse gas inventory is for 2005 at SRC-319 and SRC-320 and whose grid emission factor the European Union takes from IEA data because installation-specific data cannot be verified. NOTE ALSO THAT THE LIFETIME FIGURE IS THE ANNUAL FIGURE MULTIPLIED BY TWENTY AND CARRIED TO TWO DECIMALS: 1,255,808.65 times 20 is 25,116,173. It is a multiplication, not a modelled profile. The methodology is named as the World Bank's 'Greenhouse Gas Accounting for Energy Investment Operations' and that document is NOT held. OTHER FACTS NOW READ: the project is processed under Condensed Procedures for 'Situations of Urgent Need for Assistance or Capacity Constraints'; 'A subsidiary agreement between the Ministry of Finance (MoF) and PETDE will be established prior to the effectiveness of the Financing Agreement'; a ministerial-level Project Steering Committee includes the Managing Director of PETDE and a senior representative of the Ministry of Finance; PETDE was to 'employ advance procurement for the OE contract, which is expected to be launched in June 2025'; and subcomponent 4.2 for the project management team is estimated at US$2 million with an external audit of the project's financial reports. STATUS REMAINS READ_IN_PART: the results framework, the procurement annex, the environmental and social sections and Annex 2 are still not read.
CORRECTED 23 August 2026 AT CF-11 OF THE CHAPTER 8 BATTERY, AND THE ROW MISQUOTED ITS OWN DOCUMENT. This row records the target as 'to increase grid service provision to 8 hours daily by the end of 2025, and to 24 hours by 2030'. THE DOCUMENT SAYS 2028-2030. Footnote 18 at line 847 of research/SRC-C2_WorldBank_SEEP_PAD_2025-06-09.txt reads, verbatim: 'The TGoS announced plans to increase grid service provision to 8 hours daily by the end of 2025, and to 24 hours by 2028-2030, with reduced service interruption due to grid outages. According to the UNDP analysis, this goal necessitates an estimated total investment of more than US$11 billion in electricity sector infrastructure upgrades and expansions by 2030.' TWO THINGS FOLLOW. The second date is a range and any sentence printing it prints the range. AND THE ROW OMITTED THE PRICE: more than eleven billion dollars of investment by 2030 on a United Nations Development Programme analysis, which is a costed sector target this project did not hold and which belongs beside every other sector cost figure. It is a footnote, and any use says so.