Ali Ahmad, 'Distributed Power Generation for Lebanon: Market Assessment and Policy Pathways', ESMAP and the World Bank, Washington DC, May 2020, 78 pages
Source ID
SRC-354
Citation
Ali Ahmad, 'Distributed Power Generation for Lebanon: Market Assessment and Policy Pathways', ESMAP and the World Bank, Washington DC, May 2020, 78 pages
URL or path
https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/353531589865018948/pdf/Distributed-Power-Generation-for-Lebanon-Market-Assessment-and-Policy-Pathways.pdf; research/SRC-I1c_WorldBank_Distributed_Power_Generation_Lebanon_2020.pdf; text at research/SRC-I1c_WorldBank_Distributed_Power_Generation_Lebanon_2020.txt
Type
Official technical report of a multilateral programme
Hierarchy tier
3
Published
2020-05
Accessed
2026-08-22
Snapshot
PDF archived 22 August 2026, 78 pages, full text layer
Claims
The two-billion figure at its origin; distributed against central least-cost comparison
Status
READ_IN_PART
Version history
The register keeps changing after the book is fixed in print. Each entry below was added to this row in the order shown.
RETRIEVED AND READ AT ITS MARKET-SIZING CHAPTER, 22 AUGUST 2026. IT IS THE BOTTOM OF THE CHAIN AND IT WAS REACHED BY READING THE CENTURY FOUNDATION REPORT'S NOTES: SRC-322's footnote 9 cites this document for the two-billion figure. Cited on its own face as 'ESMAP. 2020. Distributed Power Generation for Lebanon: Market Assessment and Policy Pathways. (May), World Bank, Washington, DC', under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO licence, with financial and technical support from the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program acknowledged. THE SOURCE MANUSCRIPT'S CAUTION AT ITS LINE 1889 IS VINDICATED AND CAN NOW BE STATED WITH THE COMPOSITION. It declines to print the tempting line that Lebanon's generator operators take more in revenue than the state utility, on the ground that the two billion is the value of the whole chain including fuel imports while subscription revenue alone is 1.1 billion. BOTH LIMBS ARE HERE, VERBATIM. On the whole chain: 'In total, the market composed of fuel imports and distribution, generator sales, and maintenance services is estimated at around $2 billion, WITH FUEL IMPORTS CONTRIBUTING 91%, followed by maintenance services with 6%, generator sales at 3% and, lastly, fuel distribution at 1%.' NINETY-ONE PER CENT OF THE TWO BILLION IS AN IMPORT BILL, which the manuscript does not say and which makes its refusal unanswerable: comparing that total with a utility's revenue would set a fuel import bill against a revenue line. On subscriptions: 'In 2018, the total commercial (subscription-based) generator market size is estimated at $1.1 billion, serving 1.08 million customers whose electricity purchase is estimated at 4 TWh', of which the fixed income component is 'around $167 million'. THE TARIFF COMPARISON IS DIRECTLY TRANSFERABLE TO SYRIA AND IS THE BEST VERSION OF THE BRIEF'S LEAST-COST TEST: 'At current average tariff level of approximately 9 US cents per kWh, compared with the tariff of private generator at around 30 US cents/kWh, the Lebanese public can achieve savings of around $800 million per year if the diesel generators were phased out. Even if the EDL's tariff were doubled, savings would be around $400 million.' Set that beside SRC-351, where the World Bank puts Syria's 2023 average tariff at 1.5 US cents against a cost to supply of 12.5 US cents and off-grid diesel at up to US$1.10 per kWh. TWO COUNTRIES, THE SAME STRUCTURE, BOTH SIZED BY THE SAME INSTITUTION, and in both the grid is the cheaper option and the coping mechanism is the expensive one. THE EMPLOYMENT THE TRANSITION DISPLACES IS QUANTIFIED, which nothing else in this project holds: 'The total size of the labour force linked to the operations of private diesel generators is estimated to be around 13,200 persons, of which 4,200 jobs are linked to diesel fuel importation and distribution, 2,000 jobs to generator sale and repair services' and the remainder in operations. That is the just-transition question with a number on it. AND A POLITICAL-ECONOMY FINDING THE MANUSCRIPT'S LEBANON PASSAGE WOULD BE STRONGER FOR: 'the private sector actors who benefit the most from the existence of diesel generators, fuel importers and dealers and agents, who together account for around $2 billion of revenue per year, are THE LEAST VISIBLE ACTORS. In the public discourse, the owners of generator networks were often in the spotlight and therefore received high attention by the media.' The visible rent-holder is not the one taking the rent. CONTEXT FIGURE ON THE FACE: Lebanon's GDP 'around $57 billion'. NOTE THE VINTAGE: this is a May 2020 report using 2018 data, and it predates the 2021 fuel crisis, the currency collapse and the solar transition that SRC-322 documents. It sizes the market as it was before the thing that destroyed it. Any use says so. STATUS READ_IN_PART: the market-sizing chapter, the actor table discussion and the front matter are read; the policy pathways, the technical annexes and the remaining chapters are not.