Karam Shaar Advisory Ltd., 'Rethinking Subsidies in the Post-Assad Era', Syria in Figures, July 2025, labelled Issue 10
Source ID
SRC-358
Citation
Karam Shaar Advisory Ltd., 'Rethinking Subsidies in the Post-Assad Era', Syria in Figures, July 2025, labelled Issue 10
URL or path
https://karamshaar.com/syria-in-figures/rethinking-subsidies-in-the-post-assad-era; research/SRC-F2_KSA_rethinking_subsidies_post_assad.html; text at research/SRC-F2_KSA_rethinking_subsidies_post_assad.txt
Type
Specialist analytical publication
Hierarchy tier
4
Published
2025-07
Accessed
2026-08-22
Snapshot
HTML archived and converted to text 22 August 2026
Claims
Retrieval F2; the subsidy chronology
Status
READ
Version history
The register keeps changing after the book is fixed in print. Each entry below was added to this row in the order shown.
RETRIEVED AND READ IN FULL, 22 AUGUST 2026, retrieval F2 of the Chapter 8 gate. A PUBLISHER NUMBERING CONFLICT FIRST, BECAUSE IT AFFECTS CITATION: this article is headed 'July 2025 Issue 10', and SRC-323, 'Syria's Gas Sector: Recovery Under Pressure', is also headed 'July 2025 Issue 10'. TWO DIFFERENT ARTICLES CARRY THE SAME ISSUE NUMBER AND MONTH. Cite by title and date, never by issue number alone, and note that this publication's own numbering has now been found inconsistent twice, the other being issue 9 dated July on its face and June in a cross-reference. THE CHRONOLOGY THE SOURCE MANUSCRIPT GIVES IS CONFIRMED AND REFINED. Verbatim: 'As of 8 December 2024, only bread, fuel, public transport, housing gas, and electricity continued to receive subsidies.' 'In January 2025, the caretaker Ministry of Transport declared that fuel subsidies for public transportation would be eliminated, and a study was reportedly underway to determine new fare structures.' 'The full liberalization of diesel and gasoline prices followed in March, affecting public transport nationwide.' 'By July 2025, most petrol and diesel subsidies for Smart Card holders were lifted.' So January was a DECLARATION about public transport fuel with a study pending, March was the full liberalisation of diesel and gasoline, and July was both cooking gas and the lifting of most petrol and diesel subsidies for Smart Card holders. The manuscript's 'transport fuel in January, diesel and gasoline in March, cooking gas in July' holds and understates what July did. AND IT NARROWS A CLAIM THE MANUSCRIPT MAKES ABSOLUTELY. Source Chapter 7 line 2175 says 'No targeting mechanism and no compensating cash transfer accompanied any of them.' THIS DOCUMENT RECORDS A TARGETED PROGRAMME: 'After transitional authorities removed the bread subsidy earlier this year, the World Food Programme (WFP) launched a targeted initiative to subsidize bread at cost price in coordination with the government. The program, still ongoing, covers five governorates, Daraa, Tartous, Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, identified as among the most vulnerable. It aims to reach around 2 million people with 40,000 tonnes of flour through the end of 2025.' It is bread rather than fuel and it is run by an agency rather than the state, and Damascus is expressly not covered, where 'households continue to buy bread at market prices, which rose to ten times the previous subsidized rate'. The manuscript's sentence must be narrowed to say no STATE targeting mechanism and no cash transfer accompanied the FUEL liberalisations, while a WFP-run targeted bread programme exists. COOKING GAS, WITH THE SUPPLIER NAMED: 'the price of canisters sold via the Smart Card stood at about USD 2 but is now expected to rise to USD 11.80, as set by the exclusive supplier, Mahroukat.' A near-sixfold rise set by a named exclusive supplier. THE FISCAL WEIGHT: 'In 2024, fuel subsidies, including cooking gas, accounted for two-thirds of the total amount allocated to the State Contribution to Price Stabilization, according to budget figures.' AND THE SENTENCE THIS CHAPTER MOST NEEDS: 'Although not listed in the state budget due to its interdepartmental supply chain, ELECTRICITY IS NOW THE GOVERNMENT'S MAIN SUBSIDY EXPENSE, even though the state supplies only a few hours of electricity per day.' An off-budget subsidy that is the largest of them all, on a service delivered for a few hours a day, joins directly to the off-budget finding the architecture places in Chapter 5. The Minister of Electricity 'announced in January 2025 that subsidies would be gradually reduced or potentially eliminated. He acknowledged that current electricity prices are far below actual costs', which the World Bank quantifies at SRC-351 as a 1.5 US cent tariff against a 12.5 US cent cost. A CROSS-BORDER PRICE COMPARISON ON THE FACE: 'In the first week of July 2025, a liter of gasoline (Octane 95) was sold at USD 1.11, compared to USD 0.89 in neighboring Lebanon.'