The Deflated Sharpe Ratio: Why Your Grid-Search Winner Is Probably Noise
The expected best Sharpe of a parameter sweep climbs as the grid grows, even when every strategy in it is worthless. Here is the deflated Sharpe ratio explained as a practitioner sees it, with a small N to noise-ceiling lookup table you can apply to your own sweep tonight, and the one rule that killed my proudest grid-search winner: N is the pool, not the podium.