The Development Programme's US$123.3 billion of destroyed physical capital aggregates three components on three different price bases, three different periods and three different methods, one of which is the median of a range nearly three times wide
Claim ID
CH1-003
Exact or summary claim
The Development Programme's US$123.3 billion of destroyed physical capital aggregates three components on three different price bases, three different periods and three different methods, one of which is the median of a range nearly three times wide
Destination
Chapter 1
Status
SUPPORTED
Source
UNDP annexe I-2, with its two named sources opened: ESCWA Syria at War Eight Years On 2020, and World Bank Syria GRADE 2023
Source type
Three official assessments, all primary documents opened
Published
2020, 2023 and 2025
Accessed
2026-08-10
Measure and scope
ESCWA US$117.7 billion, 2011 to 2018, constant 2010 prices. World Bank GRADE US$5.1 billion, the February 2023 earthquake, unit costs as of September 2022 at about 80 per cent of Turkish unit costs, explicitly excluding Syrian pound depreciation and inflation, and stated as the median of a US$2.7 to 7.9 billion range. UNDP study team US$0.5 billion for localised battles, with no period or price basis stated. The three sum exactly to 123.3
Known conflict
The aggregation drops two price bases, three periods and an uncertainty range spanning nearly three times. The resulting single figure is then compared with the World Bank's US$108 billion for 2011 to 2024 in December 2024 dollars and called agreement
Specialist
None
Downstream
Chapter 1's convergence section and citation chase; Chapter 2 as a worked example of aggregation across incompatible bases
Action
State the composition. Do not restate the total on a common price basis without labelling the deflator choice as an author calculation