Syrian crude oil production in 2024 is put at about 63,000 barrels a day by two independent publications, and forecast at 73,000 for 2025
Claim ID
OILPROD-001
Exact or summary claim
Syrian crude oil production in 2024 is put at about 63,000 barrels a day by two independent publications, and forecast at 73,000 for 2025
Destination
Chapter 9
Status
SUPPORTED
Source
Oil and Gas Journal, 'Worldwide look at reserves and production', November-December 2025, read at the render research/CH9_OILGAS_OGJ_wwrp_2025-11-12_pages/p001.png, Syria row: forecast 2025 production 73, change from 2024 plus 14 per cent, estimated 2024 production 63, in thousand barrels a day; World Bank, Syria Macro-Fiscal Assessment, June 2025, at research/CH9_FISCAL_WB_Syria_MacroFiscal_June2025.pdf
Source type
Trade publication survey, and an international financial institution
Published
2025-11-12
Accessed
2026-08-23
Measure and scope
Crude oil production in thousand barrels a day, Syrian Arab Republic, calendar year; the 63,000 is an estimate for 2024 and the 73,000 a forecast for 2025
Known conflict
THE TWO SOURCES AGREE AT 63,000 FOR 2024, WHICH IS THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE THIS CHAPTER HAS. IT CONFLICTS WITH A SECOND WORLD BANK FIGURE FOR THE SAME YEAR, AND BOTH ARE NOW DOCUMENTED. [CORRECTED 24 AUGUST 2026 AND THE STRUCK WORDING IS QUOTED SO A PARTIAL READING CANNOT REINTRODUCE IT: this row read 'and no document carrying 54,200 has been retrieved'. THAT WAS TRUE WHEN WRITTEN AND IS NOW FALSE. The World Bank's own country dataset, Flare volume and intensity estimates 2012-2025, at research/CH9_FLARE_WB_flare_volume_intensity_2012_2025.xlsx, gives Syrian oil production of 54.1530054644808 thousand barrels a day for 2024 and 75.2465753424657 for 2025, which are the manuscript's 54,200 and 75,200 to the nearest hundred. The manuscript's attribution to the World Bank is correct.] SO THE INSTITUTION PUBLISHES TWO FIGURES FOR SYRIAN CRUDE PRODUCTION IN 2024: 54,153 barrels a day in the dataset that computes flaring intensity, and 63,000 in the June 2025 macro-fiscal assessment, a difference of 16 per cent. The Oil and Gas Journal independently gives 63. The World Bank also gives 15,000 barrels a day for GOVERNMENT-HELD AREAS in 2023, which is a different geography and a different year and must not be compared with either. The World Bank also gives 15,000 barrels a day for GOVERNMENT-HELD AREAS in 2023, which is a different geography and a different year and must not be compared with either [AMENDED 24 AUGUST 2026 UNDER D-107, AQ-14 OPTION 3. This row's Action read 'PRINT BOTH AND NAME THE DISCREPANCY' and the stage 2 verification report of the same day said the difference is a measure and vintage difference rather than a disagreement. Two controlling files, and CLAUDE.md forbids choosing silently, so it went to the author as AQ-14 and the author chose option 3. WHAT THE DOCUMENTS ESTABLISH: both figures are the World Bank publishing United States Energy Information Administration data. The 54,153 is EIA series INTL.57-1-SYR-TBPD.A, crude oil including lease condensate, 2024 = 54.15300546448088, identical to fifteen figures to the Bank's own dataset. The 63,000 is called crude in the assessment's prose at its line 458, carries footnote 4 reading 'According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data', sits against a chart the Bank titles 'Petroleum and other liquids production', and its note reads '2024 oil production is an estimate based on data in the first eleven months of the year'. SO THE RECONCILIATION IS ON THE FACE OF THE DOCUMENTS AND THE CHAPTER PRINTS IT. The criticism that survives is narrow and is the one the chapter now makes: the Bank computed and published a flaring intensity on the lower figure without noting that its own assessment carried the higher one for the same year, and a reader of either publication alone cannot see the other.]
Specialist
Petroleum production measurement
Downstream
Chapters 9, 10 and 11
Action
PRINT BOTH AND NAME THE RECONCILIATION, because it is the chapter's own subject. The Oil and Gas Journal and the World Bank's macro-fiscal assessment converge at 63,000 for 2024, which is the rarest thing in this chapter; and the World Bank's flaring dataset gives 54,153 for the same year, which is the denominator its own published flaring intensity is computed on. THE FLARING RATIO MAY BE PRINTED ON 54,200 with its source named, because the document carrying it is now open; what may not be printed is that figure as the country's production without saying that a second World Bank series gives 63,000