United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, phosphate rock chapter, editions of January 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, prepared by Stephen M. Jasinski
Source ID
SRC-375
Citation
United States Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, phosphate rock chapter, editions of January 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, prepared by Stephen M. Jasinski
URL or path
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-phosphate.pdf and the same path for 2020 to 2024; research/mcs2020-phosphate.pdf; research/mcs2021-phosphate.pdf; research/mcs2022-phosphate.pdf; research/mcs2023-phosphate.pdf; research/mcs2024-phosphate.pdf; research/mcs2025-phosphate.pdf
Type
Primary statistical publication of a United States government scientific agency
Hierarchy tier
1
Published
2020-01/2025-01
Accessed
2026-08-23
Snapshot
Six PDFs retrieved 23 August 2026, HTTP 200 on each: 64,608 / 74,949 / 133,005 / 171,584 / 747,832 / 742,719 bytes. All six read at the World Mine Production and Reserves table
Claims
Chapter 9 phosphate; issue 57; the reserve-decay argument
Status
READ_IN_PART
Version history
The register keeps changing after the book is fixed in print. Each entry below was added to this row in the order shown.
RETRIEVED AND READ 23 AUGUST 2026. [CORRECTED 24 AUGUST 2026 AND THE STRUCK WORDING IS QUOTED SO A PARTIAL READING CANNOT REINTRODUCE IT: this row opened 'AND THE SEQUENCE IS NOT WHAT THE SOURCE MANUSCRIPT DESCRIBES.' THAT IS FALSE AND THE MANUSCRIPT IS RIGHT. The row was written against source line 2133, the chapter's opening summary sentence. The phosphate passage is eighty-eight lines further on at line 2221 and already describes this sequence: 'Its editions of 2020 and 2021 carried Syria at 1.8 billion tonnes. Syria then disappeared from the country table in 2022 and 2023. When it returned in the 2024 edition the figure was 250 million tonnes, and it has stayed there since. The Survey cut the number by 86 per cent and published no explanation.' Read at that line on 24 August 2026 before this correction was written. THIS IS THE FIFTH INSTANCE OF THE PATTERN CLAUDE.md NAMES: an assertion that the manuscript is wrong requires opening the manuscript, not reasoning from a summary. ONE NUANCE THE VERIFICATION ADDS AND THE ROW SHOULD CARRY: the January 2011 edition DOES explain the rise to 1,800,000, at 'Reserves data for Algeria, Senegal, and Syria were revised based on individual company information'; Syria is named in NO revisions note for 2022 to 2025, so the manuscript's 'published no explanation' is correct of the CUT, which is what its sentence attaches it to.] Source line 2133 says the Survey 'had cut the figure to 250 million tonnes in its 2024 edition, without explanation'. SYRIA'S ROW ACROSS SIX EDITIONS, read at the table in each, reserves in thousand metric tons: 2020 edition, mine production 100 and 2,000, RESERVES 1,800,000; 2021 edition, 2,000 and 360, RESERVES 1,800,000; 2022 edition, SYRIA IS NOT IN THE TABLE; 2023 edition, SYRIA IS NOT IN THE TABLE; 2024 edition, e1,100 and 800, RESERVES 250,000; 2025 edition, 800 and 2,000, RESERVES 250,000. SO IT WAS NOT CUT IN ONE STEP IN 2024. It stood at 1.8 billion tonnes through the 2021 edition, VANISHED ENTIRELY FROM THE 2022 AND 2023 EDITIONS, and reappeared in the 2024 edition at 250 million tonnes, a seventh of the earlier figure. Any chapter sentence describes that sequence and not a single cut. AND 'WITHOUT EXPLANATION' IS EXACTLY RIGHT AND IS NOW PROVABLE, because the Survey documents its revisions every year and never documents this one. Its own note, verbatim, 2022 edition: 'Reserves for Israel, Jordan, and South Africa were updated with information from the producing companies in the respective countries. Turkey was listed separately from Other countries.' 2024 edition: 'Reserves for China, India, Russia, and Turkey were revised based on Government reports. Reserves for South Africa were revised based on company reports.' 2025 edition: 'Reserves for China and Saudi Arabia were revised based on company and Government reports.' SYRIA IS NAMED IN NONE OF THEM, in the edition where it disappeared or the edition where it returned at a seventh of its figure. THE MANUSCRIPT'S ARITHMETIC OVER THE CURRENT TABLE IS CORRECT AND WAS CHECKED AT THE PRIMARY: the 2025 edition gives a world total of 74,000,000 thousand tonnes, so Syria's 250,000 is 0.338 per cent, which is the 'about 0.34 per cent' the manuscript prints; twenty-four countries are named individually before the Other countries line; and ranking those twenty-four by reserves puts Syria fifteenth, behind Kazakhstan at 260,000 and ahead of Peru at 210,000. THE SANA CLAIM IS NOW PLACED: 1.8 billion tonnes is exactly the Survey's own figure through its 2021 edition, so a 2026 statement of 1.8 to 2.1 billion is quoting a number the Survey itself published until five years earlier, not an invention. A CAUTION FOR ANYONE PARSING THESE TABLES, AND IT IS THE BOOK'S OWN SUBJECT: footnote markers are set as superscripts and glue to the figure beside them in extracted text. Australia's reserves read as '51,100,000' in every edition and are 1,100,000 with footnote 5 attached; China reads as 'China6'. A naive parse gives Australia fifty billion tonnes it does not have, and the column sums to the published world total only once the markers are stripped. WHAT IS NOT READ: the domestic production and use sections, the world resources notes beyond the reserves definition, the substitutes and import-reliance material, and every edition before 2020.