The Toll of War prints Syria's pre-conflict population as 20.7 million in 2010 sourced to World Development Indicators, and 20,720,602 in Table 2.5, and prints 2010 total output 'in nominal terms' as US$60 billion. Sixty over 20.7 is about US$2,899 and the report's stated output per head is US$2,949, so the report's per-head figure cannot be rebuilt from the two figures it prints. The series behind it is not stated in the report.
Claim ID
CH2-011
Exact or summary claim
The Toll of War prints Syria's pre-conflict population as 20.7 million in 2010 sourced to World Development Indicators, and 20,720,602 in Table 2.5, and prints 2010 total output 'in nominal terms' as US$60 billion. Sixty over 20.7 is about US$2,899 and the report's stated output per head is US$2,949, so the report's per-head figure cannot be rebuilt from the two figures it prints. The series behind it is not stated in the report.
Destination
02-numbers-that-fail
Status
AUTHOR_ESTIMATE
Source
SRC-038; SRC-040
Source type
Official technical report, tier 3
Published
2017-07-10
Accessed
2026-08-12
Measure and scope
Author arithmetic on figures printed in one document. 60,000/20,720.602 = 2,896; 60,000/20,700 = 2,899; 2,949 x 20,720,602 = about US$61.1 billion. NOT AN ERROR CLAIM AGAINST THE REPORT: the chapter says only that one figure can be rebuilt from its document and the other cannot.
Known conflict
SUPERSEDES ITS OWN EARLIER WORDING, 12 August 2026, on finding D9 of the v16 diff review. This row asserted that the per-head figure 'was computed on an unrounded total the report does not print' and that this 'IS A ROUNDING AND VINTAGE POINT AND IS NOT AN ERROR'. THE MECHANISM IS WITHDRAWN: 2,949 across 20,720,602 implies about US$61.1 billion, which is 1.8 per cent above the printed US$60 billion and does not round to it. The prose withdrew the mechanism in v16 and this row was left asserting it, so the register stated more than the prose and more than the drafter's own basis note allowed. What is supported: the arithmetic, the failure to rebuild, and that the source series is unknown. The report's sentence compares Syria with Iraq, Lebanon and Israel, which suggests a cross-country series, and that is a suggestion rather than a finding.
Downstream
The two-correct-numbers section and the model-input definition in the taxonomy