Sharmila Devadas, Ibrahim Elbadawi and Norman V. Loayza, Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath, Development Research Group, World Bank, and Economic Research Forum, March 2021
2 verbatim quotations from the cited document are withheld from this page. Follow the citation to read them at the source.
Source ID
SRC-040
Citation
Sharmila Devadas, Ibrahim Elbadawi and Norman V. Loayza, Growth in Syria: Losses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath, Development Research Group, World Bank, and Economic Research Forum, March 2021
URL or path
research/WB Devadas Elbadawi Loayza Growth in Syria March 2021.pdf
Type
Working paper
Hierarchy tier
3
Published
2021-03
Accessed
2026-08-10
Snapshot
Retrieved from openknowledge.worldbank.org and opened 10 August 2026. 57 pages, text layer present, extracted alongside as .txt
Claims
CH2-003
Status
READ
Version history
The register keeps changing after the book is fixed in print. Each entry below was added to this row in the order shown.
RETIERED 11 August 2026 under D-028 against EVIDENCE_PROTOCOL's six-level source hierarchy. The previous value was an ad hoc quality score on an undocumented scale. Tier now records SOURCE TYPE only; how far this project has checked the document is the Status column. Previous value: tier 2. THIS IS THE UNIDENTIFIED WORKING PAPER behind US$2,857, located and opened on 10 August 2026 after Chapter 2 v2 had been written to say it could not be found. The source manuscript's characterisation of it is CORRECT and is now verified. The figure appears twice, both times as the 2010 starting value of a counterfactual: Under the counterfactual simulation, our baseline projection shows average real GDP growth of 5.3% per annum over 2011-2018 which would have led to real GDP rising from USD 60 billion in 2010 to USD 91 billion and real GDP per capita rising from USD 2,857 to USD 3,774 by 2018. So it is a model input in a no-conflict simulation, exactly as the manuscript said, and it is not an observation of 2010. IT ALSO RESOLVES THE V1 REVIEW'S SECOND BLOCKER. The reviewer was right that a price basis cannot explain the gap with The Toll of War's US$2,949, because a constant-2010-price and a current-price series coincide in the base year. The explanation is the population denominator. [STRUCK 2 SEPTEMBER 2026 ON BLOCKER B2 OF THE CURATED APPENDIX v3 DIFF REVIEW, AND THE STRUCK WORDS ARE QUOTED SO A PARTIAL READING CANNOT REINTRODUCE THEM. [quotation withheld, 14 words; follow the citation]: 60 billion over 20.7 million is about US$2,899 and not US$2,949. The position, stated once: the denominators account for about forty of the ninety-two dollars between the two figures; the price basis accounts for none of it, a constant-2010-price and a current-price series coinciding in the base year; and the remainder is unaccounted for, because the report's own total and its own population do not produce its own figure. Chapter 2 v31 lines 173 to 177, CH2-003 as corrected today, and the curated appendix at line 59 all say that and no more.] This paper uses 21 million as Syria's 2010 population, in the phrase the 21 million Syrian citizens, and US$60 billion as 2010 GDP; 60 divided by 21 is 2.857 exactly. The Toll of War states the pre-conflict population as 20.7 million in 2010, sourced to World Development Indicators. Two World Bank publications four years apart, same GDP total, different population denominators. AUTHOR ARITHMETIC, labelled: 60 billion over 20.7 million is about US$2,899, not US$2,949, so the per-head figure in The Toll of War came from a finer series than the two rounded numbers printed beside it rather than from those two numbers. That is a rounding and vintage point, not an error, and it must not be presented as one. [WITHDRAWN 2 SEPTEMBER 2026 ON THE SAME BLOCKER. THE ROUNDING MECHANISM WAS WITHDRAWN ON 12 AUGUST 2026 at evidence/claim_register.tsv CH2-011, Known_conflict, on finding D9 of the Chapter 2 v16 diff review: 2,949 across 20,720,602 implies about US$61.1 billion, which is 1.8 per cent above the printed US$60 billion and does not round to it. The prose withdrew the mechanism at v16 and this row was left asserting it, and the bar it imposed on the prose went with it. WHAT THE PROSE MAY STILL NOT SAY, and does not: that either figure is wrong. What it says is that only one of them can be rebuilt from what its own document prints.] ALSO CARRIES: cumulative GDP loss of USD 226 billion over 2011-2016 in 2010 prices, matching The Toll of War's headline, and a comparison against the no-conflict scenario giving USD 289 to 300 billion over 2011-2018. STILL UNIDENTIFIED: the data aggregator carrying US$2,806 tagged to the Fund
AMENDED IN THIS PASS, 2 September 2026, in Notes, on blocker B2 of the v3 diff review, and it is a correction with the struck words quoted in the row. [quotation withheld, 14 words; follow the citation]: the row said the explanation is the population denominator and then gives 60 billion over 20.7 million as about US$2,899 against a printed 2,949. The row's bar on presenting the discrepancy as an error rested on a rounding mechanism that CH2-011 withdrew on 12 August 2026, so the bar goes with it. What the prose may still not say, and does not, is that either figure is wrong.