The World Bank's Macro Poverty Outlook puts Syria's overall fiscal balance at minus 7.7, minus 5.1 and plus 1.4 per cent of GDP for 2023, 2024 and 2025 in its April 2026 edition, every figure marked provisional, and at minus 2.9, minus 2.7 and plus 0.2 in its October 2026 edition, with a source line naming the Syrian authorities beside the Bank and no provisional mark
1 verbatim quotation from the cited document is withheld from this page. Follow the citation to read it at the source.
Claim ID
FISCAL-005
Exact or summary claim
The World Bank's Macro Poverty Outlook puts Syria's overall fiscal balance at minus 7.7, minus 5.1 and plus 1.4 per cent of GDP for 2023, 2024 and 2025 in its April 2026 edition, every figure marked provisional, and at minus 2.9, minus 2.7 and plus 0.2 in its October 2026 edition, with a source line naming the Syrian authorities beside the Bank and no provisional mark
Destination
Chapter 5 v81 lines 125 to 131 (April as the first reading; October as a dated reading of 16 October 2026, before the closing date of 18 October 2026, D-304 item 9 A2); Chapter 12 line 47 (A2, another unit); chart CH05-SURPLUS-PARTS (April, with a dated note) || 18 October 2026 (closing pass 2, CL2-C), MPO-1: at the closing date of 18 October 2026 the October edition is a dated reading, not a post-closing one: Chapter 5 v81 l.125 keeps 'which I read on 16 October 2026' and drops the label.
Status
QUALIFIED
Source
SRC-149 (April 2026); the October 2026 edition (new source row of unit 05)
Source type
Multilateral institution country page, two editions at one address
Published
2026-04; 2026-10
Accessed
2026-08-16 (April); 2026-10-16 (October)
Measure and scope
Overall fiscal balance, per cent of GDP, Syria, calendar years 2023 to 2025. April: 'p = figures are provisional, may be subject to revision and may diverge from official projections', source 'World Bank, Fiscal Policy & Growth Department', GDP cell '..'. October: source 'Syrian Authorities, World Bank, Fiscal Policy & Growth Department', notes 'e = estimate, f = forecast', GDP 2025 US$30.6 billion footnoted to the Ministry of Finance. The GDP the October edition used for 2023 and 2024 is not stated.
Known conflict
The April figures differ from the Ministry of Finance's own summary of 2025 (SRC-705 p.6: -2.9, -2.7, +0.15 per cent); the October figures equal the ministry's for 2023 and 2024 and round its 2025 figure. That identity is an observation; the Bank does not say its figures are the ministry's or give a reason for the restatement. SCPR's 1.4 per cent (2024, net subsidy surplus, FISCAL-002) is a different quantity in a different year.
Specialist
Public finance SR-013
Downstream
Chapters 5 and 12; chart CH05-SURPLUS-PARTS; FISCAL-004 Downstream ("[quotation withheld, 8 words; follow the citation]")
Action
Name the edition every time. Never call the October figures final, confirmed or independent (the ministry's 2025 actuals are preliminary on its own page). Never join either edition's 2025 figure with SCPR's 1.4. Do not import the October edition's 2026e, H1-2026 or pound amounts. [STRUCK 18 OCTOBER 2026 (REVIEW_05 R05-4; D-308 item 2) AND QUOTED: 'STATUS PROPOSED (QUALIFIED, as audits/reports/mpo_oct2026_audit_2026-10-16/AUDIT.md section 9 item 2 proposes); the status is the author's (VERIFY.md MPO-5).'] Status QUALIFIED, the author's ruling of 18 October 2026, D-308 item 2. Opened on MPO-5, 18 October 2026.